Frequency illusion is a cognitive bias that causes us to overestimate the prevalence of an event or piece of information simply because we have recently been exposed to it. After learning or noticing something, our brains begin to spot it everywhere, even if its actual frequency has not changed. In a world saturated with content, this bias takes on particular significance: certain rare phenomena may appear much more common than they really are.
1- What is the frequency illusion?
Also known as the Baader-Meinhof effect, this illusion takes its name from a radical German group from the 1970s. A reader of the Saint Paul Pioneer Press, Terry Mullen, noticed that after discovering this group, he suddenly felt like he was hearing about it everywhere. However, there had been no actual increase in information about it: it was simply that his attention had adjusted.
Linguist Arnold Zwicky popularized this phenomenon as the frequency illusion: when our brain registers new information, it detects it more easily afterwards, giving the misleading impression that it is omnipresent.
2- A combination of two biases: selective attention and confirmation bias
This phenomenon is based on two other well-known biases:
Selective attention: we cannot consciously perceive everything. Once our mind focuses on a specific element, it starts noticing it more often, even though we previously overlooked it.
Confirmation bias: we tend to give more weight to information that confirms what we already believe. If we think a phenomenon is common, we will be more inclined to notice everything that supports this idea, while ignoring the rest.
3- How does the frequency illusion manifest itself?
This bias is particularly noticeable in situations where an event or idea becomes significant.
For example, if someone learns a new word or expression, they may start to hear it everywhere around them, in conversations, on television, in books. This does not mean that the word has suddenly become popular, but that awareness of the word has increased, creating the illusion that it appears more frequently.
Similarly, after seeing a certain type of car on the street, it seems to us that everyone is now driving that car. This is not because the number of these cars has increased, but because our brain has now spotted them.
The illusion of frequency can also manifest itself in the perception of danger. For example, if a highly publicized plane crash occurs, we may feel that plane crashes are more frequent, even though statistically they remain relatively rare compared to car accidents. This misperception of risk can lead some people to avoid flying, despite the fact that it is actually one of the safest modes of transportation.
4- The impacts of the frequency illusion
This bias can have significant consequences in several areas:
→ On risk perception
A striking event, such as an epidemic or a terrorist attack, may seem more frequent than it really is, influencing our behaviors (fear of flying, exaggerated distrust, etc.).
→ On beliefs and superstitions
A coincidence, like seeing a black cat before a failure, can fuel an unfounded belief if it is perceived as repeated.
→ On economic decisions
An investor influenced by a few striking events may overestimate a risk or a gain, leading to impulsive choices.
→ In the media: unintentional (or strategic) amplification
The overexposure of certain topics can reinforce this bias. When a tragic or spectacular event is extensively covered, it takes up an outsized place in our minds, to the point of seeming omnipresent.
This phenomenon is amplified by the media selection bias: the media favor topics that capture public opinion, at the expense of more frequent but less spectacular ones. This can distort our view of the world and make us believe that certain problems are ubiquitous, when in fact they remain marginal.
→ In politics: visibility ≠ popularity
Political campaigns sometimes exploit the illusion of frequency to impose certain themes (immigration, security, etc.) or to create the impression that a discourse is omnipresent. Even if an ideology is supported by a very active minority on social media, it can appear to be widely spread thanks to its visibility.
→ In disinformation: repetition as a weapon
Disinformation heavily relies on this bias. By repeating false information or conspiracy theories across multiple channels, propagators create the illusion that they are widely shared, which eventually makes them seem credible to some.
5- How can you avoid the frequency illusion?
To avoid this bias, it is important to maintain a critical mindset and rely on objective data. For example, rather than relying on the feeling that certain things happen more often, it is better to check statistics and compare the actual frequencies of events. In addition, taking a step back from emotionally charged or sensational information can help avoid falling into this trap. Finally, being aware of the existence of this bias and its mechanisms can help us manage it better and avoid making decisions based on false impressions.
