The illusion of correlation, or illusory correlation bias, is our tendency to perceive a link between two events when none actually exists.
This bias influences our beliefs, superstitions, and everyday judgments, and can lead us to make wrong decisions.
1- Why does our brain fall into this trap?
Our brains are programmed to detect patterns and establish links between events in order to better understand the world around us. When two phenomena appear to occur at the same time or one after the other, we naturally tend to see a cause-and-effect relationship, even if it does not exist.
Two mechanisms reinforce this illusion:
Selective memory: We remember significant or unusual events more easily, which leads us to overestimate their frequency and attribute a false correlation to them.
Pre-existing beliefs: If we think there is a link between two things, we will tend to perceive it, even without objective proof.
This bias is particularly evident in superstitions. For example, a person may believe that black cats bring bad luck because they experienced a few misfortunes after encountering one, while forgetting all the times when nothing happened.
2- The consequences of the correlation illusion
The illusion of correlation influences our perception of the world, sometimes with disturbing effects.
Stereotypes and discrimination
This bias plays a key role in the formation of stereotypes. When a minority group is portrayed in the media as violent, our brains overestimate the frequency of these events and establish a false association between belonging to that group and criminality. This misperception can fuel discrimination and influence unfair public policies, even though the data often shows the opposite.
Errors in the professional world
In the workplace, the illusion of correlation can lead to poor strategic decisions. A manager may attribute an increase in profits to a marketing campaign, when the real growth factor is a change in regulations or a seasonal trend.
Biased political decisions
This bias can also impact political decisions. Governments may adopt ineffective or unfair measures based on misleading correlations rather than actual facts.
3- Correlation illusion & misinformation
Conspiracy narratives are often based on linking isolated facts that appear to be related but are not.
This bias lends credence to misleading interpretations of events. For example, after a period of crisis or an event, some people will look for clues that they claim prove that it was not a coincidence but an orchestrated plan. By linking unrelated elements—such as a meeting of economic elites that took place before a financial crisis—they construct a story that seems logical but is based solely on illusory correlations.
Why does this work?
Our brains prefer an explanation, even a false one, to uncertainty. It is more reassuring for us to believe that a major event is the result of a hidden intention rather than chance or the complexity of the world. This need to make sense of events makes us particularly vulnerable to illusions of correlation and the manipulation that comes with them.
4- How can you avoid falling into the trap?
The best way to guard against the illusion of correlation is to adopt a critical, data-driven approach. Here are some best practices:
– Check the facts: Don’t rely solely on impressions, but look for objective evidence.
– Differentiate between correlation and causation: Just because two events occur at the same time does not mean they are linked by a cause-and-effect relationship.
– Use statistical analysis: Use studies and data to confirm or refute presumed correlations.
– Be aware of our biases: Take a step back from our own perceptions and question the connections we spontaneously make.
